The Effects of Subsidy Policy on Price and Quality of Child Care (Job Market Paper)
The largest federal child care program in the United States gives states $12.4 billion annually to spend on child care subsidies. A subsidy covers the cost of private care up to a maximum subsidy, set by the state. Both the maximum subsidy and the number of subsidized families affect demand. Using novel administrative data from Wisconsin, I also show quasi-experimental evidence that providers change their price and quality in response to changes to the maximum subsidy and the number of subsidized families. Under a fixed budget, states must trade off serving more families against giving larger subsidies to fewer families. Which allocation enrolls more children in higher-quality formal care is unclear. In this paper, I determine the enrollment impacts of a 130% average increase in the maximum subsidy Wisconsin implemented in 2022 relative to using the same budget to enroll more families. To determine the counterfactual number of families subsidized under the smaller maximum subsidy, I estimate a structural model with endogenous price, quality, and number of subsidized families. Relative to subsidizing more families, the larger maximum subsidy pushed more low-income families out of formal care than it moved into public or high-quality private providers.